Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.330152 0.379441 0.433003 0.495456 0.566198 0.643767 0.735186
2025-07-20 0.260769 0.326044 0.402548 0.498545 0.615478 0.752969 0.926549
2025-07-27 0.214487 0.289939 0.384742 0.511927 0.677331 0.884310 1.161990
2025-08-03 0.179146 0.260849 0.370490 0.527103 0.743541 1.030344 1.437047
2025-08-10 0.141022 0.220961 0.335393 0.509121 0.763682 1.119950 1.652387
2025-08-17 0.109602 0.184525 0.298735 0.482636 0.767619 1.187684 1.847271
2025-08-24 0.089278 0.160940 0.276870 0.474126 0.796134 1.294009 2.111977
2025-08-31 0.073062 0.140737 0.256677 0.464645 0.821329 1.398221 2.387037
2025-09-07 0.063182 0.129483 0.249279 0.474881 0.879698 1.561780 2.776521
2025-09-14 0.051230 0.111870 0.227545 0.456386 0.886083 1.640255 3.035392
2025-09-21 0.042962 0.099654 0.213492 0.449356 0.911390 1.753580 3.367059
2025-09-28 0.035746 0.088009 0.198371 0.437580 0.925772 1.848642 3.676989
2025-10-05 0.031639 0.082520 0.195295 0.450497 0.992002 2.051451 4.217580
2025-10-12 0.027066 0.074896 0.186276 0.449581 1.030623 2.207263 4.689816
2025-10-19 0.023882 0.069910 0.182225 0.458870 1.092133 2.416229 5.292323
2025-10-26 0.021268 0.065758 0.179340 0.470373 1.160315 2.647493 5.968007
2025-11-02 0.017561 0.057646 0.165142 0.452599 1.160216 2.735970 6.359003
2025-11-09 0.014202 0.049570 0.149287 0.427722 1.139581 2.777263 6.654347
2025-11-16 0.012057 0.044551 0.140504 0.419273 1.157055 2.905321 7.155059
2025-11-23 0.010234 0.040020 0.132087 0.410196 1.171503 3.028130 7.658275
2025-11-30 0.009206 0.037878 0.130187 0.418837 1.232894 3.268948 8.461627
2025-12-07 0.007656 0.033377 0.120097 0.402037 1.224161 3.339157 8.869228
2025-12-14 0.006589 0.030328 0.113886 0.395534 1.242497 3.478528 9.459933